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- 2009
- 2010
No festive cheer for property market as rates stay flat
Posted: 17th November 2009
The latest repo rate decision by the SA Reserve Bank means no festive celebrations for the property market, says Brian Falconer, CEO of Colliers Residential.
"We would have been delighted had Gill Marcus seen fit to cut the repo rate by a further 50 basis points in her first act as Governor of the SA Reserve Bank," says Falconer. "It would have been just the shot in the arm the property market needed ahead of the festive season.
"Added to the 500 basis points cuts we have enjoyed over the last 12 months, an extra rate cut would have improved the mood of the property market, and encouraged fence-sitting buyers to make a decision, especially as they would have had time on their hands to go home-viewing in the holiday period," adds Falconer.
"There can be no doubt that 2008 and 2009 have been the toughest years in living memory for anyone in the property market today," says Falconer. "Chipping away at an interest rate that has hindered homebuyers from entering market, and home sellers from putting their property on the market, has helped free up the market gradually, and we hope for a proper recovery over the next 12 months."
Falconer notes factors that would have swayed the MPC's decision:
• Factors in favour of a rate cut: The strong rand, which cuts the cost of imports; steady inflation; the relatively low oil price; the country's positive import/export balance; and the need to stimulate the economy, with the retail sector down around 4% year on year; and
• Factors against a rate cut: The looming Eskom price hikes; paradoxically, the strong rand, which harms exports and therefore jobs; the oncoming winter in the northern hemisphere which always pushes up the oil price; rand volatility; and retail spending over Christmas which will mean significant credit extension
"We concur with several industrialists and market commentators who have called for a repo rate settling down at around 5%," adds Falconer. "We would hope that the next 12 months will see us move in this direction."
Contacts:
Brian Falconer, Colliers International, 082 651 7890, brian@colliersresidential.co.za
Usman Aly, Predictive Communications, (011) 452 2923 usman@predictive.co.za
"We would have been delighted had Gill Marcus seen fit to cut the repo rate by a further 50 basis points in her first act as Governor of the SA Reserve Bank," says Falconer. "It would have been just the shot in the arm the property market needed ahead of the festive season.
"Added to the 500 basis points cuts we have enjoyed over the last 12 months, an extra rate cut would have improved the mood of the property market, and encouraged fence-sitting buyers to make a decision, especially as they would have had time on their hands to go home-viewing in the holiday period," adds Falconer.
"There can be no doubt that 2008 and 2009 have been the toughest years in living memory for anyone in the property market today," says Falconer. "Chipping away at an interest rate that has hindered homebuyers from entering market, and home sellers from putting their property on the market, has helped free up the market gradually, and we hope for a proper recovery over the next 12 months."
Falconer notes factors that would have swayed the MPC's decision:
• Factors in favour of a rate cut: The strong rand, which cuts the cost of imports; steady inflation; the relatively low oil price; the country's positive import/export balance; and the need to stimulate the economy, with the retail sector down around 4% year on year; and
• Factors against a rate cut: The looming Eskom price hikes; paradoxically, the strong rand, which harms exports and therefore jobs; the oncoming winter in the northern hemisphere which always pushes up the oil price; rand volatility; and retail spending over Christmas which will mean significant credit extension
"We concur with several industrialists and market commentators who have called for a repo rate settling down at around 5%," adds Falconer. "We would hope that the next 12 months will see us move in this direction."
Contacts:
Brian Falconer, Colliers International, 082 651 7890, brian@colliersresidential.co.za
Usman Aly, Predictive Communications, (011) 452 2923 usman@predictive.co.za
Posted by: Brian Falconer
